Three Toyotas, One Last Rally: The WRC Title Fight Comes to Sardinia

Nineteen is the number Elfyn Evans can carry through the service park at Rally Italia Sardegna. Score it and his first World Rally Championship drivers’ title is secure, whatever Sami Pajari or Oliver Solberg achieve. Win the rally and the Welshman is champion immediately. One event remains, the maths is now official, and the road to Alghero is already asking its questions.

The latest points picture leaves Evans on 230, Pajari on 213 and Solberg on 209. That is a 17-point lead over Pajari and 21 over Solberg. Saudi Arabia was removed from the 2026 calendar on 17 September, leaving Rally Italia Sardegna as the season finale from 1 to 4 October.

Three teammates, three different routes to the same prize

Evans comes to Italy with the most direct path. Pajari has the strongest winning record of the trio this season, and Solberg arrives from a victory in Chile that kept him mathematically alive. They all drive for Toyota, whose manufacturers’ title is already secured for a sixth consecutive year. Their remaining work is personal: make one final result count across the overall rally, Sunday classification and Wolf Power Stage.

A maximum weekend is worth 35 points: 25 for the rally win, up to five on Super Sunday and another five on the Wolf Power Stage. The system gives a driver several ways to build a result, although the bonus points are attached to performance on the final day and the Power Stage itself. For the title contenders, every scoring route runs through the same practical demand: stay in the rally and finish strongly.

Evans has the cleanest target, with a demanding weekend ahead

The official calculation is clear. Nineteen points guarantee Evans the championship regardless of the other two. Overall victory is worth 25, enough by itself. Second place is worth 17, so he would need at least two Sunday bonus points to reach the safe total. Third is worth 15 and requires four bonus points. Further back, the amount needed from Sunday and the Power Stage rises.

Eighteen points would leave a small but important opening. If Pajari collected the maximum 35 and Evans scored exactly 18, both would finish on 248. In that specific tie, a Sardinia victory would give Pajari a fourth rally win of the season against Evans’ two, putting the Finn ahead on the first countback measure. The arithmetic explains why Evans’ safe target is 19. A podium finish alone would leave the outcome open.

Evans knows the lead does not make Sardinia a controlled exercise. He has described opening the road on gravel as a significant disadvantage, with the effect depending on the weather before the rally. October also moves the event away from its traditional early-summer date, so the crews will learn how the changed calendar has shaped the surface as they prepare.

Pajari must attack while watching both mirrors

Pajari starts 17 points behind Evans and four ahead of Solberg. To finish ahead of Evans on points, he needs to outscore the leader by at least 18. At the same time, he must keep Solberg close enough behind. If the Swede scores five more points than Pajari, the four-point gap becomes an advantage for Solberg.

The Finn’s three victories in Estonia, Finland and Paraguay have made the challenge real. Those wins also matter in the event of a tie. Pajari currently has three, while Evans and Solberg each have two. A victory in Sardinia would extend that countback edge, though the final championship still depends on the points earned by all three across the weekend.

Solberg needs a large score and help from the order

Solberg starts 21 points behind Evans and four behind Pajari. To move ahead of both on points alone, he must outscore Evans by at least 22 and Pajari by five. That is a demanding combination, though Chile showed how quickly a single Sunday can change the balance. Solberg’s win there was the reason he remains in the conversation.

A perfect 35-point rally would bring Solberg to 244. In that case, Evans could score no more than 15 and still finish level, with Solberg ahead on rally victories if he wins in Sardinia. The route depends on a high score for Solberg and a result that limits both rivals. It is the narrowest path, though it remains a path.

Seventeen stages carry the championship to Alghero

The official event plan lists 17 gravel stages and 307.02 competitive kilometres, with Alghero at the centre of the rally. The distance is long enough to make the event a full test of pace and endurance, while the bonus points keep Sunday significant after the overall order has begun to settle.

Evans has said Sardinia’s gravel can make opening the road difficult, particularly when conditions stay dry. The effect will depend on the weather in the build-up. A change in rain or surface could alter the level of cleaning, so a championship calculation made in advance still has to survive the road crews meet on each stage.

His description of the task was plain: “cruising around is definitely not an option.” It is a concise summary of the problem facing every contender. Evans must protect the lead without giving away the pace. Pajari has to create a points swing while remaining alert to Solberg. Solberg has to make the largest possible result and hope the order helps him.

A title can be won before the final stage, or on it

The 19-point threshold gives Evans a visible line, yet the championship can remain undecided until the last scoring opportunities. A rally win takes him across it at once. A smaller result leaves Pajari and Solberg measuring their own totals against his, and the Super Sunday and Power Stage points could keep the title alive deep into the final afternoon.

For Toyota, the scene is unusual and compelling: three teammates arrive with a mathematical chance and enough pace to affect one another’s outcome. Their season has already secured the manufacturers’ trophy. Sardinia will decide which driver can add the individual crown, with every stage carrying the possibility of changing the count.

Evans starts with the largest advantage and the clearest instruction. Pajari brings three wins and the closest target. Solberg brings the force of his Chile victory and the hardest calculation. The finale has its place, its route and its numbers. By Sunday evening, one of those three Toyotas will leave Sardinia with the 2026 WRC drivers’ title.